Monday, 9 March 2026

Public transport is now more essential in this current geopolitical situation

From LT News

I do not usually wish to get involved with politics or geopolitics. My purpose is not to scaremonger; this is a suggestion to help avoid catastrophic situations by proposing a "Plan B" involving public transport. I genuinely hope we do not reach that situation. Overall, it remains essential to tackle climate change by encouraging more public transport usage and increasing the electric vehicle (EV) rollout.

Bear in mind that I am not an expert in this field. However, an old article by London Transport News from 1974 may be of interest, as they tackled the oil crisis at that time. I have included the full text of that article at the end of this post for those who are unable to read the text within the images.


This is my suggestion to the Greater London Authority to help supplement my ideas regarding public transport. This is part of their London Resilience Partnership and the UK Government's emergency response and recovery guidance, which mentions flooding, climate disasters, terrorist attacks and health outbreaks.

With the ongoing geopolitical situation involving the war in Iran, global oil supplies have faced massive disruption. This has sent prices above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. One of the immediate supply disruptions includes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway, which typically handles 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), has come to a near standstill. Major Gulf producers are being forced to shut down oilfields as onshore storage reaches maximum capacity because they cannot export crude through the blocked strait. Petrol has risen to an average of 136p per litre, with diesel hitting 147p, the highest since August 2024.

Because of this, motoring organisations AA and the RAC are advising motorists to conserve fuel amid concerns that soaring oil prices will soon feed through to the pumps.


Public transport is an essential part of the UK's critical national infrastructure. It depends on oil and gas to provide services, which includes electricity and fuel. I am aware that the UK government's Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is currently undergoing an open call for evidence, "Future of the UK downstream oil sector", which closes on 20 April 2026.

Most importantly, despite the transition to carbon-neutral technologies such as electric vehicles, we remain dependent on oil for various requirements, including energy production. Transport for London (TfL), regional transport bodies, local authorities, the government, and both train and bus operating companies are working together to tackle such issues.

Through the inclusion of sustainable travel and cycling, authorities are encouraging a shift away from fossil-fuel dependency while improving public health and reducing urban congestion.

TfL is required by the Greater London Authority Act 1999 to host a consultation on bus services whenever they introduce a new route or withdraw or amend an existing one. To immediately introduce a new bus service, they should follow the method they used with route 310, by tendering for a service and launching the consultation on the same day the new route enters service.

Greater London lacks cross-boundary bus services, which is why it is important for TfL to work with neighbouring authorities to introduce more of them. I suggested issues such as the lack of a direct bus link from Romford to Ongar in an article I published in 2024.

It should not be a postcode lottery. Everyone should have equal access to public services, especially for travelling to shops, work, and visiting people, which is essential to both society and the economy. All areas require adequate public transport services, particularly as many people are unable to drive due to medical issues, disqualification, or the high costs of motoring, such as insurance and road tax.

Furthermore, while sustainable travel and cycling are already being integrated into transport networks, it is vital to recognise that some people are unable to cycle due to a disability. Therefore, a comprehensive public transport system remains a necessity to ensure no one is left behind.

How does this affect the new electric bus rollout?

Certain bus models, such as BYD and Yutong, are built in China and imported to the United Kingdom. The ships used rely on oil to transport the newly built electric buses. This also affects the import of new electric vehicle batteries and components produced globally. This could be impacted, along with the oil used to produce plastic for components.

This is why the UK and Ireland should have more domestic bus and rolling stock manufacturing to create new jobs, enhance competition and improve supply chains. Consequently, it is essential to retain the existing bus and train fleet. It may need to be kept longer because more bus services may be needed to cope with increasing usage as oil shortages affect car travel.

Does it mean we should revert to the Covid pandemic days?

Should non-essential workers, pupils and students have to stay at home as part of a "lockdown"? I cannot speak for the government, but I can make predictions and suggestions. Such measures are a possibility to tackle non-essential journeys, ensuring that fuel and energy are prioritised for those on the front lines. The primary purpose of this would be to manage the severe oil shortages caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure, allowing the limited supply to be directed toward critical national infrastructure sectors, such as food distribution, medical services and emergency response. By reducing car dependency during a crisis, we ensure that the most essential parts of our society and economy can continue to function.

Conclusion

The current geopolitical situation is a stark reminder that public transport is not just a convenience; it is a vital part of our national security and social equity. While I have focused on the Greater London Authority and its partners building a resilient capital, these ideas are not limited to London. The lessons from the 1974 oil crisis are just as relevant today for the entire United Kingdom as they were fifty years ago.

By improving cross-boundary links, maintaining a flexible bus fleet and ensuring no one is left isolated by a postcode lottery, we can create a stronger national network. Whether we are facing international supply disruptions or the ongoing challenge of climate change, the priority must be to provide a reliable and interconnected system that serves everyone, regardless of their ability to drive. Investing in a robust and adaptable public transport system today is the only way to safeguard our mobility, our essential workers and our economy for tomorrow.

I would like to extend an invite for you to follow me on X (formerly Twitter) for transport-related updates. You can find me by searching for @CLondoner92 or by clicking on the direct link to my X page here. I am also present on BlueSky and Mastodon. I look forward to connecting with you on these platforms. Thank you for your support

Further reading

Suggestion: I Believe It’s Time for a New Regional Transport Body for the South East of England?

Appendix: London Transport News (No. 24 - March 22 1974) — Full Article Text (extracted using AI)

 WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE OIL RUNS OUT?

On Monday London Transport chiefs met to present reports on the implications the oil crisis holds for LT. In this special feature we spotlight their views on some of the major economic and technical aspects of the problem . . .

The oil crisis could be more succinctly described as two crises — economic and geological. Consuming countries are already bracing themselves for vastly increased oil costs. In the longer term, they must also prepare for the day when there is no oil available at any price.

London Transport, like other oil-hungry organisations, has been investigating the implications — and while allowing no room for complacency, reports presented at Monday's energy summit do suggest that the picture is not one of total gloom and despondency.

Chief supplies officer James Park indicated that — while future trends were far from clear — prices could soon stabilise, particularly when North Sea oil began to flow in quantity.

World survey

Part-time Executive Member Sir Peter Masefield, in a survey of the world’s energy resources, was optimistic that North Sea reserves could meet the United Kingdom's demands for more than 50 years — long enough for the development of new technology.

And chief mechanical engineer Stanley Smith, together with chief electrical engineer Victor Smith, demonstrated how LT could be equipped to economise on power consumption and take advantage of alternative sources of energy.

Massive rises

James Park's responsibilities include buying an annual 25 million gallons of diesel fuel for the buses and 180,000 tons of heavy fuel oil for Lots Road generating station, which provides most of the Underground's power.

As such, he has been in a front-line position to observe massive oil price rises which — coupled with expected steep increases in the price of domestically produced coal, gas and electricity — "make it imperative for a radical reappraisal to be made of all fuel used by LT with a view to reducing the impact of these increases."

Yet despite the complex political, fiscal and commercial background to the oil price explosion, Mr Park is able to strike some relatively bright notes in his report. He indicates that crude oil prices are beginning to fall from the spectacular levels reached at the end of last year — due to reduced economic activities in industrial countries and restraint on the part of buyers.

These factors, he suggests, could mean that the existing level of prices will be held for the rest of the year. And as for the future, Mr Park reports: "One factor which will help to constrain the rise in energy prices is the availability of oil and gas from the recently discovered resources in the North Sea. When this is available in quantity, probably in the late 1970s it should help to provide a stabilising force in UK fuel prices."

The importance of North Sea oil was underlined by Sir Peter Masefield. He regards the deposits as a vital bridge in what he describes as "the energy gap" — the difference between supply and demand. With the world's known and proven crude oil reserves now standing at about 100 thousand million tons, Sir Peter warns that supplies are secure for only 35 years at present world consumption rates.

If demand continues to increase at its current seven per cent a year — that is a doubling in ten years — these reserves could be down to about eight years by 1990.

'More to come'

Sir Peter points out that 'proved reserves' applies only to those reservoirs where wells have been drilled and a supply established at economic cost. "Clearly there is much more to come," he says. "Even so, one might justly call North Sea oil a miracle."

The hope is that there are reserves of not less than 5,500 million tons of oil in the North Sea — enough to satisfy the United Kingdom's needs for more than 50 years at present consumption rates. Much as these new sources are to be valued, however, Sir Peter stresses that the days of cheap oil have gone forever — and since even North Sea oil is not limitless, he goes on to urge widening use of alternatives such as nuclear power, hydro-electric power and, eventually, solar energy.

As Sir Peter told the Transport Studies Society in his presidential address last month: "In the longer term, cars, buses and trains can all draw their power from electric sources for which the generation is primarily from non-fossil fuels, then a substantial step forward will have been achieved towards meeting transport requirements economically and without serious restrictions. I believe that such an objective can be achieved and that — with wise planning and technological advances — the cost of transport may begin to come down again in relative terms; certainly before the end of the century."

The technical innovations demanded by rising oil prices and dwindling oil reserves are being researched by chief mechanical engineer Stanley Smith and his team. Their immediate concern, in the face of a fuel oil bill recently elevated to £11.3 million a year, is to reduce the power consumption of LT's buses and trains.

So far as buses are concerned, work has been concentrated on alternative sources of fuel and energy since, says Mr Smith, "the bus has the lowest fuel consumption per passenger seat of any urban type of vehicle and it is doubtful whether great gains will be made by future buses."

'Unattractive'

As it happens, the prospects of replacing the highly-efficient diesel engine are economically unattractive so long as oil remains available; for, as Mr Smith reports, none of the alternatives investigated offers any economic advantages. "It is clear," he told LT News, "that we will continue with the development of diesel-engine buses for at least 20 years and probably longer. The real application of the alternatives will come in the very long term."

What are the options open to LT when diesel fuel finally runs dry? One possibility would be liquified natural gas — but this has to be kept in heavily insulated tanks at a temperature of minus 160 degrees Centigrade, presenting obvious handling difficulties for staff.

The Stirling engine offers another possible solution. This has an external combustion system burning at atmospheric pressure, which means it can burn almost any fuel, with very low pollution levels. A Swedish firm expects to have prototypes ready for service trials in about two years, and preliminary arrangements have been made to test one in an RM bus.

Electric traction, however, presents the mostly likely long-term answer. Mr Smith recalls that 20 years ago a highly detailed comparative study of diesel and trolley buses revealed little difference in operating costs — but he points out that a return to trolley bus operation would incur high capital costs.

That leaves the battery bus. Britain's first full-size commercial version — the Silent Rider — goes into service in Manchester soon, and LT expects to have an improved version on trial within two years.

Minimum range

But, as Mr Smith reports, battery technology has a long way to go before it meets LT's operational and cost specifications on a fleet basis. To give a DMS-size bus the minimum required service range of 100 miles between charges, a conventional lead-acid battery would have to weigh about ten tons — more than the bus itself!

British Rail, however, together with a number of other organisations, are developing high-performance storage cells — notably the sodium-sulphur cell — which would improve the power-to-weight ratio tenfold, making the battery weight for a range of 100 miles about one ton.

Even then, a battery bus would still be considerably heavier than a diesel-powered vehicle. And its annual power system cost — taking account of initial price, life span, maintenance and energy costs — would be 70 per cent higher, though this difference would largely disappear if the battery's life could be increased from its envisaged three years to 15.

Under review

Methods under review include thyristor control and regenerative braking — both of which enable the traction motors to be used as generators during braking and so reduce demands on the current rails. Both systems are likely to go on trial on prototype Underground stock in the next few years, for though Mr Smith warns that the equipment is expensive, he also indicates that the potential rewards are too great to ignore — energy savings of up to 30 per cent are forecast.

Chief electrical engineer Victor Smith has forecast that, on present prices, fuel costs could be slashed by £1½ million a year when Greenwich power station makes its proposed switch from oil firing to natural gas next February.

Energy sources

Yet this saving is only a by-product of his search for alternative sources of energy for LT's Greenwich and Lots Road (Chelsea) generating plants — the source of two-thirds of the Underground's power requirements. Primarily his investigation was prompted by recent Arab discovery of the 'oil weapon' — the threat of restricted supplies. With the very operation of the Underground at risk, Mr Smith was forced to look for a more secure flow of energy.

He found that natural gas offers the only practical alternative at present — and the result is that Greenwich, which supplements the Lots Road base load at peak periods, is planned to undergo a £1.3 million conversion to dual firing. By this arrangement the station would normally run on natural gas — but could also operate on oil if the gas supply failed.

Apart from providing greater security of supplies, if coal or gas prices eventually match oil costs — natural gas has the added advantage that it is expected to prolong the life of the Greenwich plant boilers — currently 15 — by between three and five years. Meanwhile consideration is being given to converting Lots Road to natural gas.

One other possible alternative meets with Mr Smith — the use of atomic power. But, as he reports: "It is felt that this would inevitably mean resiting the power stations in less densely populated areas and this would, of course, involve considerable capital expenditure on a new station together with the high cost of additional transmission lines."
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