Transport for London (TfL) has revealed the usage and costs of the Bakerloop BL1 express bus service, which runs parallel to the proposed London Underground Bakerloo line extension.
Request ID: FOI-3475-2526
Date published: 09 January 2026
We are working hard to improve bus services for everyone in the capital. Feedback from the Bakerloop consultation showed there was strong support for the proposed route with 82 per cent of respondents saying the new express bus service would be more convenient and 79 per cent of Londoners stating it would result in faster bus journey times.
1. When the Bakerloop bus route was approved, how much fare revenue did TfL expect the route to make, and what passenger numbers were these expectations based on (either weekly or daily passenger numbers, whatever you hold the data for)
We do not hold the fare revenue or passenger numbers forecast for the route BL1 on its own as it is calculated as a network impact. The estimated additional revenue per year across the network that the introduction of the BL1 is forecast to generate was provided in response to a previous request (Table 3):
The proposed BL1 limited-stop bus service, which requires 9 vehicles to operate 5 buses per hour (4 bph on Sundays and evenings), is estimated to cover 407,437 miles annually with a gross cost of £3,639,217 and a net cost of £3,099,217 after accounting for £540,000 in revenue, resulting in a benefit-to-net-cost ratio of 0.9 based on £2,830,000 in passenger benefits.
2216-2526-New Bus Route BL 1_Redacted.pdf
2. From the date the Bakerloop launched up to the most recent period for which TfL holds data, how many passengers have actually used the route, and how much fare revenue has it actually brought in?
The Bakerloop route began operating on 27 September 2025 and for the first week pay as you go customers were able to take advantage of free travel. As of 9 December 2025, there were 366,589 journeys made and the total pay as you go fare revenue was £231,085.10.
3. What was the total cost of setting up the Bakerloop, and based on current passenger numbers and revenue, is the route on track to recover those costs or expected to make a loss?
4. Based on the route’s operating costs and fare revenue per passenger, how many daily or weekly passenger journeys would the Bakerloop need in order to break even and recover the cost of setting up the route?
The annual cost to TfL from the operator for running the route is published on our website:
Accepted Bid: £4,931,033 per annum
The branding costs were provided in response to a recent FOI request (question 4):
The Bakerloop (BL1) vehicle, stop and shelter branding costs for service launch were £170,184.47.
Additional costs will have included:
• Producing and installing of printed customer information - £5726
• Installation of real-time information screens - £6324
We do not hold this information on whether we expect the route to “break even” or how many journeys it would take to recover setup costs. The estimated net cost is available in the table linked in response to question 1 above.
In addition, I reported last year (2025) that the cost of branding one double-deck electric bus, the BYD BD11, for the Bakerloop was £13,515.28 for press publicity.
The grand total for branding and publicity is £195,749.75.
You may also be interested in reading the service specification for route BL1 (Contract Reference: QC94805).
To break even on its operational costs alone, the Bakerloop would need to increase its daily ridership to approximately 20,500 passengers. Based on recent Freedom of Information data, the route generated £231,085.10 in pay-as-you-go fare revenue from 366,589 journeys during its first ten weeks—a period that included an initial week of free travel. While these figures indicate a strong start, they represent a significant gap relative to the £4,931,033 annual tender contract. To fully transition from a subsidised service to a self-sustaining one, the route must not only cover this annual operational fee but also recoup its £195,749.75 in total set-up costs, which included vehicle branding, real-time information screens, and specialised press publicity.
While the initial revenue is promising, it highlights the fiscal realities of London’s bus network, where fares typically subsidise only a portion of operating expenses. For the BL1 to become self-sustaining, it must bridge the multi-million-pound difference between daily passenger income and the high operational standards required for an express service. This means that while the route has successfully recouped its initial branding and launch expenditure, its long-term viability remains reliant on a substantial increase in patronage from commuters using seasonal Travelcards and young people using Zip Oyster cards. Ensuring the service remains a permanent fixture of the South London landscape will depend on its ability to mature into a high-frequency staple for the 82% of residents who, according to TfL consultation, already view the route as more convenient.
The financial foundation of the BL1 ‘Bakerloop’ was established when Southwark Council identified and allocated £5,078,652.01 from Section 106 developer contributions—sourced from local growth projects such as those at 49-53 Glengall Road and 221 New Kent Road. This local investment covers roughly 14% of the route's seven-year operational costs and has been bolstered by Lewisham Council’s successful bid for a £10 million Better Bus Partnership grant. This additional funding is earmarked for critical bus priority and infrastructure upgrades along the corridor, designed to reduce journey times by up to 30% and reinforce the BL1’s role as a precursor to the proposed Bakerloo Line Extension.
Beyond the immediate performance of the BL1, long-term financial projections for the full rail extension suggest a significantly more robust revenue model. According to a 2022 Freedom of Information request (FOI-0879-2223), TfL modelling for the Bakerloo Line Extension estimated a nominal revenue surplus of £73.31 million by the 2031/32 financial year, assuming an opening date of 2030/31. Crucially, these figures represent net revenue, calculated as the surplus remaining after all forecast operational and maintenance costs have been covered. However, these projections come with specific caveats: the data was compiled using pre-pandemic modelling and does not yet account for shifts in post-Covid travel patterns. Furthermore, because these figures are nominal, they include forecast inflation up to the year of receipt. As the scheme develops, TfL expects these revenue forecasts to evolve through further modelling, providing a clearer picture of how the extension will eventually move from a capital-heavy investment to a net contributor to the capital's public transport services.
Conclusion: From Bus to Rail
The time has now come to move beyond interim projects and commit to the full Bakerloo Line Extension (BLE). Current 2026 projections estimate the cost of the extension from Elephant & Castle to Lewisham to be between £5.2 billion and £8.7 billion, with a further extension to Hayes potentially pushing the total project value toward £10 billion. While the initial investment is substantial, the economic cost of inaction is significantly higher. Southwark and Lewisham councils, alongside the ‘Back the Bakerloo’ campaign, have warned that failing to deliver the line could result in billions of pounds in lost economic output and the continued stagnation of one of the capital's few remaining ‘Tube Deserts’.
The potential returns on this investment are national in scale and far outweigh the costs. A completed extension is expected to unlock 20,400 new homes and 9,700 jobs in the immediate corridor, while delivering an estimated £1.5 billion annual boost to the UK’s Gross Value Added (GVA). Beyond the local impact, the project would support a nationwide manufacturing supply chain, including the Siemens factory in Yorkshire where the new rolling stock would be built. By providing a train every two minutes and increasing capacity by 150,000 daily trips, the extension would finally bridge the economic divide for residents who currently have access to less than 10% of the capital's jobs within a 45-minute commute. With the BL1 already proving that passengers are ready and waiting, the case for the Bakerloo Line Extension has never been clearer; it is no longer a question of whether London can afford to build it, but whether the UK can afford the cost of further delay.
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