Sunday, 31 May 2026

The Funding Challenges Preventing the Original Launch Dates for the New Tube for London (2024 Stock) for the Bakerloo, Central, Piccadilly, and Waterloo & City Lines

A review of historical and recent Freedom of Information (FOI) disclosures outlines the development and subsequent changes to Transport for London's (TfL) plans for upgrading its deep-level Underground lines. What was originally structured as a coordinated programme across four lines has faced adjustments due to changing financial structures, funding constraints, and macroeconomic factors.

The 2016 Baseline Plans and Timelines

A key document released on TfL’s Freedom of Information disclosure log provides context on the original timelines for the modernised fleet. The document, titled London Underground New Tube for London Rolling Stock Instructions to Bidders (OJEU Contract Notice: 2014/S 044-074152) and dated 18 January 2016, spans 61 pages and includes early projections for passenger service entry.

Table C4.3
Date and Train Number Assumptions
Description Piccadilly Line Bakerloo Line Central Line Waterloo & City Line
Commencement Date 23-Oct-17 01-Mar-22 31-Jan-25 18-Dec-30
Steady State of Services 01-Apr-25 01-Apr-27 01-Apr-31 01-Apr-32
Contract Length (years) 40 40 40 40
Contract End 31-Mar-65 31-Mar-67 31-Mar-71 31-Mar-72
Assumed days in year 365 365 365 365
OPEX Timeline Start 01-Apr-25 01-Apr-27 01-Apr-31 01-Apr-32
OPEX Timeline First period end 31-Mar-26 31-Mar-28 31-Mar-32 31-Mar-33
FSA Start Date 31-Dec-27 19-Jan-29 25-Mar-34 29-Mar-34
FSA Timeline First period end 31-Mar-28 31-Mar-29 31-Mar-34 31-Mar-34
Depot CAPEX costs incurred 01-Apr-22 01-Apr-24 01-Apr-28 01-Apr-30
Base date for pre-indexation costs 01-Apr-15 01-Apr-15 01-Apr-15 01-Apr-15
Number of Trains in Base Order / WLO 94 36 89 5
Number of Option Trains 18 42* 24 2

* This number is inclusive of up to 37 Trains that may be required for the Bakerloo Line Extension.

Source: TfL FOI Release (FOI-0350-2627)

I have shared the original baseline dates on social media:


The Transition from the 'New Tube for London' to Single-Line Upgrades

An additional FOI response published on the TfL website provides further context on the operational history of the project:

Request ID: FOI-0282-2627
Date published: 26 May 2026

The ‘Deep Tube Upgrade Programme’ (DTUP) dates to circa 2010/11 when we set out our plans for four deep Tube lines (Piccadilly, Bakerloo, Central and Waterloo & City) to introduce new rolling stock and new signalling. The objective was to have commonality across the four lines with trains and signalling to provide higher capacity, improved customer experience and potential driverless operation. Achieving driverless operation requires trains and signalling that are designed for it as well as platform edge doors (as is the case with most driverless metros around the world). The exception to achieving driverless operation within the Programme was the Bakerloo line given the interoperability on the line with heavy rail and London Underground (LU) services north of Queen’s Park.

Implementation across the four lines was intended through the 2020s and 2030s. I would refer you to the published Board and Rail and Underground Panel papers which provide more information on the programme, available at the links below:

https://content.tfl.gov.uk/Part-1-Item08-Deep-Tube-Programme.pdf

https://content.tfl.gov.uk/board-20140205-part-1-item10-new-tube-for-london.pdf

https://content.tfl.gov.uk/board-160317-item12-ntfl-authority-2016-p1.pdf

https://content.tfl.gov.uk/rup-20160224-part-1-item09-ntfl-signalling.pdf

From 2015/16 onwards it was announced at the time that the Government Capital grant to TfL was going to be phased out by 2018/19 and as such, uncertainty on affordability increased. By 2016 the Programme had been renamed as the ‘New Tube for London’ (still covering the same four lines). By 2018, given funding constraints, difficult prioritisation choices were made to finalise TfL’s Business Plan at that time and the decision was taken in May 2018 to proceed with the award of the rolling stock contract which included the four lines with the Piccadilly line trains being the base order with options for the Bakerloo, Central and Waterloo & City lines. The rolling stock contract was awarded to Siemens in November 2018. Subsequently, given the funding constraints and then the pandemic which significantly affected our finances, it was decided to have individual line upgrade projects starting with the Piccadilly Line Upgrade and move away from the name ‘New Tube for London’. The new signalling proposed as part of the New Tube for London was deferred and remains unfunded. As a result, the New Tube for London was renamed Piccadilly Line Upgrade (Stage 1 replacement of the current fleet). The line will continue to operate with manual operation with the new trains being planned to enter service from between December this year and June 2027. They will operate with the current signalling. We continue to make the case for funding to implement new signalling on the Piccadilly line with automatic train control (known as Piccadilly Line Upgrade Stage 2) like we have on other LU lines. There are no plans to implement platform edge doors or introduce driverless trains on the Piccadilly line.

For the Bakerloo line we are progressing plans for the introduction of new trains using the option in the rolling stock contract with Siemens. However, new signalling on the Bakerloo line remains unfunded.

No decision has been made on whether to use the option in the Siemens contract for new trains on the Central and Waterloo & City line. There are currently no plans to upgrade or replace signalling on the Waterloo & City line. There are no plans to introduce driverless trains on the Bakerloo, Central or Waterloo & City lines, nor on any other line.

Fleet Lifecycle Management: The Central Line

As for the refurbishment of the Central line trains (1992 Tube Stock), TfL has also posted another update on their website:

Request ID: FOI-0452-2627
Date published: 28 May 2026

The Central Line Improvement Programme (CLIP) is the most significant overhaul project undertaken by our engineers in the history of the London Underground and will transform journeys for millions of customers every week.

The crucial and innovative work done on the CLIP will install wheelchair bays to improve accessibility, screens in carriages to enhance customer information during travel, more CCTV, and new refreshed seating including a new moquette. The project is a new and innovative step for TfL, which has never before undertaken work to install new motors and electrical systems on its trains. Completing the overhaul work will refresh the ageing fleet and ensure that the trains will continue to operate and extend their working life.

There is currently one long-term stopped unit due to traction motor issues at Hainault depot. Work is underway to return this to service as soon as possible. More broadly, service delivery is being impacted by a reduced number of available trains due to commitments to CLIP and Door Overhaul Programme Lift (DOPL) programmes.

Improvements are anticipated on the line as the CLIP programme progresses, during which time we expect to see an increase in operational train availability, enabling a more frequent and resilient timetable. The completion date at present remains that we are working for the trains to be upgraded by the end of 2029.

Customers may be eligible for a refund if your journey was delayed for 15 minutes or more. We do not issue refunds for delays outside our control, including:

• Strikes
• Security alerts
• Bad weather
• Customer incidents e.g. a person falling ill on a train
• Engineering works

We publish information on service delay refunds on our website. However, to provide information on those that relate solely to the Central line would exceed the ‘appropriate limit’ of £450 set by the FOI (Appropriate Limit and Fees) Regulations 2004.

As for the Bakerloo line, in February 2026, I published an article covering Transport for London's publication of the Preliminary Market Engagement Notice for the Bakerloo line upgrade.

Historical Projections vs. Current Realities

According to TfL's Fit for the Future document, the first new Piccadilly line train was supposed to launch during 2022, with the expectation that full modernisation of the Bakerloo, Central, Piccadilly, and Waterloo & City lines would be complete by 2025, alongside new train orders for the Jubilee and Northern lines.


Furthermore, according to the London Infrastructure Plan 2050 published in 2014, the New Tube for London was originally intended to feature full automation alongside platform screen doors.

The #London #Infrastructure Plan 2050, published in 2014, outlines the New Tube for London (2024 Tube Stock), the next generation of deep tube trains. 🚇⦵ It proposes full automation (GoA4) and platform screen doors for the Central and Piccadilly lines to boost capacity. #transport #metro #subway

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— CLondoner92 (@clondoner92.bsky.social) January 17, 2026 at 9:04 AM

Structural Shifts in Public Transport Funding

The roots of the current funding structure trace back to the 2015 Spending Review and Autumn Statement following the election of a majority Conservative government.

The 2015 Conservative Party Manifesto outlined policies to devolve powers and budgets to city mayors and reform local government finance by permitting local authorities to retain 100% of business rates growth. For London, this was accompanied by a structural change detailed in the HM Treasury Spending Review settlement, which phased out TfL's core resource grant by 2019/20.

Text from the manifesto:

We will devolve powers and budgets to boost local growth in England

We will devolve far-reaching powers over economic development, transport and social care to large cities which choose to have elected mayors.

We will legislate to deliver the historic deal for Greater Manchester, which will devolve powers and budgets and lead to the creation of a directly elected Mayor for Greater Manchester.

In Cambridgeshire, Greater Manchester and Cheshire East, we will pilot allowing local councils to retain 100 per cent of growth in business rates, so they reap the benefit of decisions that boost growth locally.

We will devolve further powers over skills spending and planning to the Mayor of London.

And we will deliver more bespoke Growth Deals with local councils, where locally supported, and back Local Enterprise Partnerships to promote jobs and growth.

This policy framework led to the revised financial settlements detailed in HM Treasury's Spending Review and Autumn Statement 2015:

HM Treasury - Spending review and autumn statement 2015

The Department for Transport (DfT) settlement includes:

[...]

overall resource savings of 37% by 2019-20, reducing the subsidy paid to rail franchises through reaping the efficiency benefits of competition, and phasing out the TfL Resource grant, representing a 6% efficiency saving to its annual budget

[...]

Efficiency and reform

DfT will deliver substantial savings through driving increased efficiency in both the core department and its ALBs, including the DVLA’s continued move to digital services saving a further £94 million this Parliament, and continued improvements to ticketing technology.

The government will phase out the resource grant made to TfL, which represents 6% of TfL’s annual budget and will support over £11 billion investments in London transport. This grant reduction will save £700 million in 2019-20 which could be achieved through further efficiency savings by TfL, or through generating additional income from the 5,700 acres of land TfL owns in London. The government will also provide TfL with additional financial flexibility, and over time will consider transferring the funding for the TfL Capital Grant as part of the Business Rate Retention reforms.

[...]

Devolution

By the end of the Parliament, local government will retain 100% of business rate revenues. Alongside savings announced elsewhere, this will come with additional responsibilities and empower local authorities to deliver services in a way that is right for their area. For example, the government will consider transferring responsibility for funding the administration of Housing Benefit for pensioners, TfL’s capital projects to local government and will also consult on options to transfer responsibility for funding public health. The government will consult on these and other additional responsibilities in 2016.

These documents indicate that the changes were part of the wider devolution policy of the time, under which the majority of tax revenue continued to be directed to HM Treasury.

The impact of these financial reforms on TfL's budget was subsequently addressed by the Mayor of London in March 2018:

Reference: 2018/0725

Answer by Mayor Sadiq Khan
Date: Sunday 25 March 2018

"I was clear when I came into post that Transport for London (TfL) was good, but flabby. Under my leadership, TfL is becoming a more efficient, leaner organisation and is on track to turn an operating deficit into a surplus by 2021/22. For the first time in TfL's history, operating costs were reduced last year by £153m. TfL expects this trend to continue this year, with like-for-like costs lower than last year, and total operating costs £200m better than the 2017/18 budget. This is through reducing management layers, merging functions and delivering improvements to transport more efficiently.
I was also clear that after years of huge fare increases, I would take action to make public transport more accessible and affordable for Londoners. Keeping travel affordable has also made financial sense for TfL, helping to cushion the reduction in trips on the Tube and Overground compared to the National Rail network.
Despite an average £700m per year reduction in Government funding, TfL's balanced Business Plan shows how it will continue to make huge investment to further modernise the transport network, improving services, accessibility and capacity. This year I will open the Elizabeth line which, when fully open, will increase rail capacity in London by 10 per cent. The Tube upgrade programme continues, including increasing capacity on the District, Circle, Hammersmith & City and Metropolitan lines by up to 33 per cent. TfL is also creating the greenest bus fleet in the world and will be introducing 4G to the Tube and the Elizabeth line from 2019, removing one of the UK's largest 'not-spots' for connectivity.
My Transport Strategy also sets out how affordable public transport for all will support London's economic growth, and create a fairer, greener and healthier city. The Healthy Streets Approach will help remove the need to travel by car, and make walking, cycling and taking public transport safer and easier."

These capital budget pressures, alongside signalling integration complexities and the impact of the Covid pandemic, contributed to the revised timelines for other major infrastructure projects, including the opening of the Crossrail Elizabeth line, which was deferred to May 2022.

The Feasibility of Driverless Operation

The London Underground – GoA4 Operating Model Feasibility Assessment (April 2023) was commissioned to evaluate the viability of converting major London Underground lines to Grade of Automation 4 (GoA4—Unattended Train Operation). It concludes that while there are no insurmountable technical or operational barriers, TfL will continue to retain a member of staff on board every train for the foreseeable future to fulfill safety duties. The study establishes that any transition is a decade-long process that must be synchronised with major rolling stock and signalling replacements. Ultimately, whilst an incremental upgrade offers very high long-term economic value, the rigorous safety case required by the Office of Rail & Road (ORR) and negative net financial flows mean the document serves as a framework for future decision-making rather than an immediate mandate.

#Transport for #London Freedom of Information release: #Driverless #Trains Study as Part of the #TfL Funding Bailout The requested report is attached. Some info is withheld under #FOI exemptions for security, commercial, and safety reasons. tfl.gov.uk/corporate/tr...

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— CLondoner92 (@clondoner92.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 3:56 PM

Conclusion: The Strategic Cost of Deferred Investment

The evolution of the Deep Tube Upgrade Programme from a unified, four-line modernisation blueprint into a series of isolated life-extension projects highlights a fundamental challenge facing TfL and the Mayor: the tension between long-term infrastructure requirements and short-term fiscal constraints. The transition away from the original 'New Tube for London' vision demonstrates that capital investment cannot successfully occur in isolation. Procuring new rolling stock, as seen with the Piccadilly line, without funding the accompanying automatic train control signalling systems fundamentally limits the capacity, frequency, and reliability gains that passengers experience on the platform.

Compounding this challenge is the financial burden of managing ageing assets. As the delivery of CLIP demonstrates, deferring fleet replacement forces TfL to undertake unprecedented, complex engineering overhauls just to sustain daily operations. While these interventions successfully extend the working life of legacy rolling stock like the 1992 Tube Stock, they introduce significant interim operational friction, reduce train availability, and result in service disruptions that carry real economic costs for Londoners.

Despite a constrained funding landscape that traces back to the structural changes of the 2015 Spending Review and the subsequent fiscal pressures of the pandemic, the case for sustained capital investment in the Underground network remains critical. The network functions as the backbone of London’s economic infrastructure; allowing deep-level lines to rely on legacy signalling and decades-old fleets creates an inherent vulnerability to compounding failures and mounting maintenance backlogs.

Furthermore, integrating modern infrastructure additions, such as platform screen doors, should not be evaluated merely as a premium feature or tied exclusively to the debate around driverless automation. Rather, they serve as a practical operational safeguard. By physically isolating the platform from the tracks, they directly mitigate common causes of daily disruption, such as passengers dropping items or accidentally falling into the path of trains. Preventing these incidents protects timetable resilience, avoids cascading delays across interconnecting lines, and reduces the immediate operational pressure on station staff and emergency services.

Ultimately, upgrading the Underground's oldest infrastructure is an essential baseline for the capital’s operational continuity. Securing dedicated capital funding for modern signalling—particularly for the Piccadilly and Bakerloo lines—and exercising contract options for fleet replacements represents a necessary insurance policy. It shifts the network away from reactive, costly intervention towards an optimised, high-capacity system capable of supporting long-term economic growth and public reliability.

Beyond immediate municipal budgets, these infrastructure delays highlight a broader structural issue within the British state: the highly centralised nature of the UK taxation system. Capital funding has long been managed via a top-down model directed by HM Treasury, which subjects critical regional upgrades to lengthy, central approvals and rigid business case requirements.

This stagnation stands in stark contrast to global trends; governments around the world are aggressively investing in their infrastructure to secure long-term improvements, particularly within their transport networks through the procurement of modern rolling stock and the expansion of high-speed rail. Meanwhile, the UK consistently falls behind its international peers. Because transport networks form a vital component of the country’s critical national infrastructure, the current British structural arrangement frequently reduces essential capital projects to a series of political blame games, where central government and devolved administrations trade partisan accountability for network vulnerabilities, delays, and funding shortfalls.

Shifting instead towards a ground-up funding model would remove these friction points and grant local authorities the fiscal autonomy to safeguard and develop these national assets based on direct local need. To address this imbalance, long-standing arguments exist for comprehensive reforms to the administrative divisions in England. Granting local administrations the powers to directly fund and progress infrastructure improvements without traditional fiscal frontiers would allow them to deliver targeted transport investments that more effectively stimulate economic growth, improve connectivity, and support wider societal well-being.

Further reading

Fact check: Does automating the Tube avert strike actions?

TfL Answers Questions About The New London Underground 2024 Tube Stock For The Piccadilly Line
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